I would like to thank the officers of the Society for the Advancement of Management, the faculty, and the administration of Morgan State University for inviting me to speak at the 6th annual awards dinner. To help us digest better this lovely meal, I have chosen a rather light, but thought-provoking theme, 'luck vs opportunity."
Usually, the thing we call luck - whether good or bad - is not casting upon us by the fates or the powers that be. Occasionally, a mishap may happen, such as a piano dropping from a crane onto innocent people below; or a plane crash or a train derailment killing hundreds. This talk will not address this phenomenon. How many times have we heard the expression that Bill Jones was very lucky or Mary Smith is always in the right place at the right time? Tonight, I would like to raise several questions:
1. Are luck and opportunity related?
2. Can they be managed?
Let's back up a little. Webster defines luck as the seemingly chance happenings of events that affect one - either good or bad.
Luck is characterized in various ways such as: "he stumbled onto some luck," "he fell upon some luck," "he was lucky to have avoided that disaster," things of this nature. We can all relate to that, I'm sure!
Webster defines opportunity as a combination of circumstances favorable for the purpose, or a favorable juncture of circumstances. Several expressions also depict an opportunity. Such as, "take the opportunity," "seize the opportunity," "it was a well-timed opportunity." now let's focus a little more closely on these two words. Luck is characterized as a haphazard, random set of occurrences that happens as a matter of course. On the other hand, an opportunity is something that you identify and make happen within a given time frame. An opportunist is viewed as a winner. This raises the basic question: is it luck, ability, or a certain intuitive edge that gives winners a slight advantage?
Let's look at three different scenarios that are familiar to us, within the realm of sports, business, and the school environment. Baseball is a sport that requires considerable skill and talent to play well. Yet it is also referred to as a game of inches and breaks. Invariably, the better teams appear to benefit from the breaks more than their opponents. If the shortstop positions himself properly to start a critical double play or the center fielder makes an amazing catch to thwart an impending rally. Why do these positive benefits occur with some more frequently than others? What are the factors responsible?
The fast-food industry is highly competitive and fragmented. Mcdonald': - the big Mac, if you will is viewed as the leader and sets the pace for marketing excellence.
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What are the factors responsible for Mcdonald's identifying and maximizing opportunities better than the other companies who also work in that particular industry?
The academic environment is equally as challenging as the business and sports arena. There are many opportunities for students to achieve and excel. Why do some achieve more than others? We should all ask that question.
These scenarios have a common bond. (chuckle) I’m half lying. It appears that luck favors some more than others! However, I contend that certain factors improve the probability of being lucky. Now that's a pretty heavy statement. Let's look at a different definition of luck that I feel is more meaningful and relevant to all of us sitting out there. Luck occurs when preparation meets opportunity.
I now would like to address the management of opportunity and the factors critical to its success:
Preparation is the key factor common throughout the earlier examples. For example the good
Ballplayers are those who analyze their skills, weaknesses, and habits of their opponents and exploit them to win victory after victory. Businesses have elaborate mechanisms to understand the market, their competitors, and plans to maximize opportunities.
Good student studies and listens attentively to those key concepts which inevitably show up on the major examinations. We can all relate to that I'm sure.
There are two major areas of preparation: planning and what I like to call-competence. Good planning is fundamental to the success of every endeavor. These plans, both personal and business, should be dynamic and reflect both strategic and operational aspects. They should establish objectives, set priorities, identify alternatives, opportunities, and resources. To be most effective, plans should be in writing and measurable.
Now there is no substitute for competence. It is derived from a myriad of factors that affect mental attitude and ability to achieve. An understanding and mastery of the fundamentals, basics, and continued practice of these learned skills are essential to becoming competent. The more comfortable that one is with his/her skills, the more effective he/she will be in accomplishing their stated objectives.
Preparation is the initial step which prepares you for the competitive environment. Competition is an accepted way of life and cuts across all activities, business, social, and recreational. Certain concepts are characteristic of winners. Winners are opportunists and what may be opportunism or chance. is usually a constructive approach which includes many things which I will elaborate on:
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A winner has a history of success. (i.e. The New York Yankees). They have a history of success which covers many decades. They relish competition and the more frequent the activity the greater the poise and polish that they gain under stress.
A second aspect is an analytical strength. The successful person analyzes his competition. This allows him to evaluate the strength, weaknesses, and cause and effect relationships which lead to practical and realistic strategies and develops personal confidence.
Practice-oh, that horrible word. Specific technique practice is required to strengthen weaknesses and develop self-confidence and discipline which increases consistency of performance. In tennis, developing a mastery of the first serve requires considerable practice because the second serve can be troublesome and can contribute to a loss of a point, the game, or match.
Training. One must develop reserves and capabilities. It is impossible to achieve a peak output at all times. However, the successful person can recognize key points and opportunities and has a plan and the stamina for redoubling efforts at those periods. This is analogous to the mile runner practicing at five miles a day so that he has the strength and endurance to withstand the competitive kick required in the last 440 yards of the race.
Flexibility. This is the ability to bounce back from adversity and to make creative responses under pressure to regain the competitive advantage. In essence, it is the ability to be resilient and recover from a temporary set back.
The successful incorporation and attainment of these techniques lead to a positive mental attitude. Successful people have mental attitudes that complement their techniques and continued success strengthens further these attitudes.
Let's look briefly at the three major components of mental attitude: confidence, concentration, and mental alertness, and poise:
Confidence results from the knowledge that specific skills have been acquired that can be used to one's advantage. Former New York Yankee pitcher CC Sabathia mastered the skills of pitching. He has demonstrated the ability to consistently throw the good curveball when necessary in critical situations. Therefore he has the confidence to pitch well regardless of the situation or batter.
It is impossible to eliminate all distractions but the person who is most effective in maintaining his/her concentration and focus on solving complex problems invariably achieves the best solution. Similarly, the ability to compete incorporates a high level of mental alertness. An in-depth situation analysis will enable you to identify opportunities and develop action plans to provide a competitive advantage leading to a focused action plan.
It is now very apparent that the techniques described thus far with mental attitude are complementary. The more developed the skills and accompanying attitude the greater poise is demonstrated. Poise is the final denominator that differentiates one group of
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achievers from another. This ability to think, act, and work under pressure without becoming nonplussed is the final evaluator. Poise evolves from the ability to manage one's self. It is an understanding of internal pressures and needs. It is the ability to discipline one's self, to control anger and action that could be counterproductive.
I have taken you on a leisurely walk through what I consider are the concepts most important to understanding or to help you understand my basic theme. Luck is a random occurrence of events opportunities that occur as a result of actions. Those who have mastered these techniques increase the probability of identifying and capitalizing on an opportunity.
I would like now to put these concepts in perspective by illustrating how the utilization of the discussed techniques have helped my business group to identify and maximize opportunities. First I will outline an overview of the group's s activities and finally, I will address a specific problem.
Initially, international sales were decentralized at eight packaging plants in the United States and were administered on an exception basis. Volume was relatively small and these sales were viewed as a nuisance and handled carelessly.
I set up an International Business Development Group to Develop a long term presence offshore. The world was divided Into logical geographical markets to identify opportunities. A business plan was developed and implemented to capitalize on the opportunities identified. The plan consisted of the following: Number one, Centralize all activities in New York. Number two, Develop an international organization to implement the marketing plan, and Number three, develop and manage a cost-effective world-wide sales agent network. Let's now discuss the problem.
A unique market opportunity was identified in Asia. This new market had potential exceeding 50 million dollars annually. A major problem existed however because the government proscribed the importation of the required product and therefore the opportunity was viewed as dormant and hidden. A strategy and action plan were developed. An agent was signed and a process began to work with the various governmental agencies to revise the importation laws. After more than 24 months, import restrictions were lifted. As a result, phenomenal product acceptance and growth occurred. The intensive market analysis resulted in the introduction of a product unique to that particular market which generated profits three times greater than normal.
This tremendous sales growth generated intensive competition from other United States suppliers Most of the companies in this market recognized my company as a leader and refused to work with the competition. We now have reduced the import duties further which have quadrupled the initial volume allowing us to grow with the market.
In summary, the international market has generated increased revenues and profitability for the division. The structured plans, intensive analysis, and aggressive
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strategy have helped to increase volume by more than 500% over the last four years. Additionally, one joint venture in Japan has been established, a technical assistance agreement in Ecuador has been implemented, and we are presently in the process of evaluating two other joint venture opportunities in Asia.
Now, what does this all mean? Through rigorous SWOT analysis, you can be successful. Opportunities are visible normally only to a few. Once it has grown, it no longer can be classified as an opportunity. As evidenced by my examples.
The initiator - the person who takes the initiative - capitalizes on an opportunity realizes the greatest gain.
There are certain aspects of luck over which we have no control. I contend, however, that we can help to make our luck and manage opportunity. For luck occurs when preparation meets opportunity. Now I issue this challenge to you to move more aggressively to create your fate.
Thank you very much.